I wrote last month that Clooney was not a lock for best actor. Last night, BAFTA proved that Jean Dujardin is the real frontrunner: he won Cannes, Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA and he will win the Oscar. He will have the big five of the movie awards and he will be the first.
I also wrote that the best actress race is the most exciting this year. I predicted that it would be difficult for Meryl to win the SAG, because she won with DOUBT. But I also said that the BAFTA, in the last 5 years, seem to be a better Oscar predictor than the SAG. "And Meryl will definitely win the BAFTA for her portrait as Margaret Thatcher. Even if Viola wins the SAG, Meryl can easily gain momentum after the SAG and, with a BAFTA in her hand, she can get her third Oscar", I wrote.
I said everybody were underestimating 2 things, and I add other more:
1) Academy loves biopics and Meryl plays the real Margaret Thatcher. Academy loves protraits of real people and the past years prove it: Colin Firth, Sandra Bullock, Sean Penn, Marion Cotillard, Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Withersoon, Jamie Foxx, Charlize Theron, Adrien Brody, Nicole Kidman, Julia Roberts, Hilary Swank are examples. Penn won over Rourke, Cotillard over Christie... We have to major exceptions: Jeff Bridges over Morgan Freeman - not a great Mandela; Denzel over Russell Crowe - he won the previous year.
2) Harvey Weinstein is always Harvey Weinstein. This is the guy that gave the Oscar to Roberto Benigni, Gwyneth Paltrow, Nicole Kidman, Colin Firth, Michael Caine, etc... and he will give it to Dujardin and to Streep.
3) Meryl has the Oscar performance. Academy loves fireworks and Streep's portrait of Thatcher is all about fireworks.
4) No Oscar love for THE IRON LADY? The movie is a lock for best makeup.
P.S.: BTW, if it was Glenn Close or other actress to do Thatcher the way Streep did, wasn't Close a lock for best actress? Why Meryl isn't?
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ReplyDeleteI understand that you think Meryl Streep gave the best performance but I think that yo showing a bias. You not accounting for several things. First Meryl Streep has won before giving Viola Davis a big advantage. Yes I know she is due but it still gives Viola Davis the advantage. Second Meryl Streep film isn't a best picture nominee or a good film in general another big advantage for Viola Davis. Yes I know your film doesn't have to be a best nominee or a great film to win but it certainly helps . Third The SAG is a much better predictor than the BAFTA. The BAFTA have a bias and The SAG think much more like the academy. In the past 5 years it has been equal in predicting.(2008 Kate Winslet won in supporting) And the past 10 The SAG has been correct much more. Plus your forgetting the critics choice award . Yes it close and yes Meryl Streep could win but she's far from the front runner.
ReplyDeleteP.S The Best Actor race is much closer than it appears not as close as best actress but still close.
It's Viola Davis Race to lose at this point
DeleteThere are two issues: who turns in best performance and who has the best chance to win an Oscar. You are confusing the two, switching back and forth with no clarity.
DeleteYour basic logic: it will be Viola's first so she has advantage. It does not mean anything at all. Viola was nominated before and did not win. Second, numerous potential first timers in the past didn't win.
meryl is gaining momentum. let's hope that she wins because this time she really deserves. but we have one week and half, much can change. so far, I'm still putting my money on meryl.
ReplyDeleteFat F*ck Harvey Weinberg is a devil spwan who needs to PAY for inflicting Benigni on us!
ReplyDeletelololololol
DeleteWhen one keeps knocking the door, he is going to have it open for him. 17 nominations is a lot of chances.
ReplyDeleteTwo black actoresses win in the same year for the same movie? Slim chance. This is after all Hollywood, not Bollywood, or Afrowood . But in a Obama year, you never know. Weird things has happened.
SAG? Quite a few actoresses won SAG but lost Oscar, Annette Benning, Rene Zellwager, Judy Foster, Julie Christie and ironically Meryl Streep herself. It is hard to imagine that whether Meryl Streep won SAG or not, she is not getting Oscar.
Talking about box office, her Mama Mia did better than OO7. The question is how many times can Hollywood turns down a chance to honor one of its very best with the year's best performance? Like Vincent van Gogh's paintings, it is a shame of human nature in history.
totally agree
DeleteWow, wow, wow, look at what I stumbled on to! Daniel! Isn't it satifying.
DeleteUn the Oscar light, others appear much pale and simple do not measure up. It turns out to be the best way to enjoy an Oscar night.
Some are still mumbling "would, could, should have ... ....". It would be fun to give their noses a good rub.
james from canada?
ReplyDelete