Monday, February 13, 2012
MERYL WILL WIN 3RD OSCAR BECAUSE...
I wrote last month that Clooney was not a lock for best actor. Last night, BAFTA proved that Jean Dujardin is the real frontrunner: he won Cannes, Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA and he will win the Oscar. He will have the big five of the movie awards and he will be the first.
I also wrote that the best actress race is the most exciting this year. I predicted that it would be difficult for Meryl to win the SAG, because she won with DOUBT. But I also said that the BAFTA, in the last 5 years, seem to be a better Oscar predictor than the SAG. "And Meryl will definitely win the BAFTA for her portrait as Margaret Thatcher. Even if Viola wins the SAG, Meryl can easily gain momentum after the SAG and, with a BAFTA in her hand, she can get her third Oscar", I wrote.
I said everybody were underestimating 2 things, and I add other more:
1) Academy loves biopics and Meryl plays the real Margaret Thatcher. Academy loves protraits of real people and the past years prove it: Colin Firth, Sandra Bullock, Sean Penn, Marion Cotillard, Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Withersoon, Jamie Foxx, Charlize Theron, Adrien Brody, Nicole Kidman, Julia Roberts, Hilary Swank are examples. Penn won over Rourke, Cotillard over Christie... We have to major exceptions: Jeff Bridges over Morgan Freeman - not a great Mandela; Denzel over Russell Crowe - he won the previous year.
2) Harvey Weinstein is always Harvey Weinstein. This is the guy that gave the Oscar to Roberto Benigni, Gwyneth Paltrow, Nicole Kidman, Colin Firth, Michael Caine, etc... and he will give it to Dujardin and to Streep.
3) Meryl has the Oscar performance. Academy loves fireworks and Streep's portrait of Thatcher is all about fireworks.
4) No Oscar love for THE IRON LADY? The movie is a lock for best makeup.
P.S.: BTW, if it was Glenn Close or other actress to do Thatcher the way Streep did, wasn't Close a lock for best actress? Why Meryl isn't?